As we all know, the NBA is programmed and wired to be an offensive show on the court. Everybody wants to score in bunches—whether it benefits their team or not. But is putting up big numbers while taking bad shots beneficial? Or is it better to take high-quality shots, even at the cost of lower scoring totals?

The Franz

Franz Wagner comes from the European background and style of play. He has a focus of passing the ball (averaging 4 assists per game over his career) and ball movement to create open looks not only for himself but teammates. Franz Wagner is a key building block in the resurgence of the Orlando Magic. Coming out of Michigan, he wasn't a high-volume scorer, averaging 12 points per game in 2 seasons with the Wolverines. He was more of a stat stuffer, having his hands all over the court than a pure scorer. Since coming to the Magic, he has developed his offensive game to be a nice one-two punch with Banchero. Overall, he isn't a great three-point shooter, boasting a low 32% three-point percentage for his career. He is in the top 25 currently with 23.2 points per game for his career, shooting a total of 47% so far, and last year finished 15th in the league with 24.2 points per game. He has a low three-point percentage but a high overall shooting average. Is there something to his shot taking and where he shoots from that directly helps and hurts the Magic in a game?

The Breakdown

I have looked at where Franz shoots the ball from on the court, his shooting percentage, and whether they lead to Magic wins or losses. Franz being a hybrid forward—meaning he can play both inside and out, and handle the ball when needed—his metrics are a little different than someone like Banchero. We put his dividing line at shots over 18 feet and shots under 18 feet. We then look at shooting percentage and finally whether the Magic win or not.

So, What Do We Have?

Right off the bat, we have a good sign for Franz. On opening night, he took a total of 17 shots, 12 being inside 18 feet and 5 being outside 18 feet. He shot 53% from the field and the Magic won. That's a decent spread on the shot line, and it led to a good shooting percentage and to a win. This is just a short example of how we look at and breakdown each game. As you can see in Franz's shooting chart below, the further he went out, he missed and the more his shooting percentage went down. These are possible possessions that in close games can cost the Magic a win.

!Franz Wagner shot chart

Franz Wagner's shot chart showing makes (circles) and misses (triangles) across different zones. Notice the concentration of makes inside 18 feet versus misses beyond the arc.

In 8 wins so far, Franz shot 4 more shots from inside 18 feet than outside 18 feet with a shooting percentage of 45% or better. The Magic currently, as of this article, have 9 wins so far. As you can see in wins, Franz tends to shoot more in the mid-range to inside the paint, leading to a higher shooting percentage which tends to lead the Magic to a win. The one outlier win was a game where he shot more from outside, but the Magic still won that game.

The Magic are a notoriously slow offensive team. Last season they ranked last in the NBA with a pace of 96.51. They changed that this year and decided to go fast, which has allowed the Magic to score in droves. So far this year, they rank 18th in offensive pace at 100.87. The Magic are currently third in the league in total scoring with 2,129 points scored so far. This has them sitting at 10th in the league in points per game at 119.6, which is a huge step up from last year where they ranked 28th in the league with 105.4 points per game. Franz has scored almost 20% of the points this year with 414 points, with 214 of those points being from the mid-range or paint. I think the way the Magic are playing on offense and how they have changed their approach has allowed Franz to get easier looks and get to the rim a little easier than what they ran before. To show how much the Magic have changed and how much Franz moves without the ball, Franz is first in the league with total miles traveled with 44.5 miles so far.

What Does This Mean?

So far this season, Franz's overall offensive numbers have gone up across the board. His shooting percentage is up a point and a half overall, and his three-point shooting percentage is up six percentage points from last season. He's getting to the line more this season too, by almost 3 more free throw attempts per game. Overall, his offensive game has flourished, and I think that is due to the Magic's new approach on offense. It allows for a lot more space for Franz to work in and get to the rim a lot more than when the Magic ran the slowed-down pick and roll offense last season. Now, the Magic's defense has taken a hit, sitting at 13th in the league in defensive rating of 112.8 compared to last year's 2nd league rating at 109.1.

The Magic have recently talked about changing their game plan and going back to a defensive team like years past. They have wanted to get back to defense leading to offense, and I'm intrigued to see if this affects Wagner's offensive game. The biggest question going forward with this play style is: if the Magic go back to defense, does it affect their offense, and if so, how does this affect the way Franz Wagner plays?

As he goes right now, so go the Magic, it seems. If he continues what we have seen so far, the Magic can get on track, and Franz will lead the Magic once more to the playoffs. If he starts to drift outside more and more, I think the Magic will be in trouble as a team. Franz is a good all-around player. I would watch him closely over the next few weeks to see if this trend of shooting and wins continues, and if so, he might be a low buy with high upside.